CDU/CSU to be the largest group in the new Bundestag

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be the largest parliamentary group in the Bundestag in the 21st electoral term. In the Bundestag election on Sunday, 23 February 2025, they received a combined 28.6 per cent of the second votes cast (2021: 24.2 per cent), with the CDU winning 22.6 per cent nationwide and the CSU, which only stood in Bavaria, receiving 6.0 per cent. 

According to the official provisional result of the Bundestag election, Alternative for Germany (AfD) managed to double its share of the second votes cast; after receiving 20.8 per cent, it will now be the second-largest group in the German Bundestag for the first time (2021: 10.4 per cent).

The SPD is the third-largest group

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the winner of the last Bundestag election and the largest group in Parliament during the last electoral term, saw its share of the second votes fall to 16.4 per cent (2021: 25.7 per cent). It is now the third-largest group, ahead of Alliance 90/The Greens on 11.6 per cent (2021: 14.7 per cent). The Left Party received 8.8 per cent of the second votes cast and will be the smallest group in the German Bundestag, as it was after the 2021 election. In 2021, the party received 4.9 per cent of the vote and thus fell short of the five per cent threshold; however, as it had won two constituency seats in Berlin and one in Leipzig, it entered Parliament with the number of seats it merited on the basis of its share of the second vote.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP), at 4.3 per cent, will no longer be represented in the Bundestag (2021: 11.4 per cent). The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which received 4.97 per cent of the second votes in what was its first Bundestag election, also fell narrowly short of entering Parliament. The party was established in 2024, mainly by former members of the Left Party. The Left Party parliamentary group in the Bundestag had previously disbanded, which subsequently led to the Left Party and the BSW forming two separate parliamentary groupings.

One seat for the South Schleswig Voters’ Association

The South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW) is once again represented with one seat in Parliament after receiving 0.2 per cent of the second votes (2021: 0.1 per cent). As the party of the Danish and Frisian minority in Germany, the SSW is not required to meet the five per cent electoral threshold for representation in Parliament.

All other parties that put forward party lists in the election collectively received 4.4 per cent of the second votes cast (2021: 8.6 per cent). The share of invalid second votes was 0.6 per cent (2021: 0.9 per cent), while 0.9 per cent of the first votes were invalid (2021: 1.0 per cent). 

630 Members in the 21st German Bundestag

With 630 Members, the 21st German Bundestag will be significantly smaller than its predecessor, which ended the electoral term with 733 Members. This is the result of new electoral legislation that entered into force in June 2023, which statutorily limits the number of parliamentarians to this figure. The reform eliminates overhang mandates and balance seats. The number of constituencies is unchanged, at 299.     

The CDU has 164 seats (2021: 152), including 128 constituency seats (2021: 98), and the CSU has 44 seats (2021: 45), all of which are constituency seats. In total, the CDU/CSU parliamentary group has 208 Members. 

The AfD is represented in the Bundestag by 152 parliamentarians (2021: 83), 42 of whom were elected in constituencies (2021: 16); the SPD won 44 constituency seats (2021: 121) and has a total of 120 Members of Parliament (2021: 206). Alliance 90/The Greens is entering Parliament with 85 Members (2021: 118), 12 of whom won a constituency seat (2021: 16). The Left Party now has 64 seats (2021: 39), with six of its candidates winning constituencies (2021: three). 

23 first-placed constituency candidates will not enter the Bundestag 

23 candidates will not be Members of the new Bundestag despite coming first in their constituencies. This is due to the 2023 electoral reform: a party now only receives as many seats in Parliament as it is entitled to based on its share of the second votes cast. If, under the second-vote coverage procedure in a given Land (federal state), a party is entitled to fewer seats than the number of constituencies where it placed first in terms of first votes received, it does not return Members in the constituencies where its share of the first votes was lowest.

This primarily affects CDU and CSU candidates: one in Schleswig-Holstein, five in Hesse, three in Rhineland-Palatinate, three in Bavaria and six in Baden-Württemberg. Four constituency winners from the AfD will not enter the Bundestag, from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony. One constituency in Bremen, won by an SPD candidate, will not return a Member. 

Turnout of 82.5 per cent

At 82.5 per cent, the turnout was significantly higher than in 2021 (76.4 per cent). The lowest turnout recorded in the history of the Federal Republic was in 2009, at 70.8 per cent, while the highest was in 1972, at 91.1 per cent.

The Federal Electoral Committee is expected to announce the official final result of the 2025 Bundestag election on Friday, 14 March 2025, at a public meeting that will be broadcast live on Parliamentary Television and online at www.bundestag.de. (ste/vom/24.02.2025)